AI R&D

• Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability Jul 2026
• Evidence on AI R&D Progress from NanoGPT Apr 2026
• An Apple-Picking Model of AI R&D Apr 2026

AI progress

• Building Blocks to AI Timelines Feb 2025

benchmarks

• On the Subtleties of Software Optimization Evals Feb 2026

economics

• An Apple-Picking Model of AI R&D Apr 2026
• Building Blocks to AI Timelines Feb 2025

evals

• Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability Jul 2026
• Evidence on AI R&D Progress from NanoGPT Apr 2026
• On the Subtleties of Software Optimization Evals Feb 2026

forecasting

• An Apple-Picking Model of AI R&D Apr 2026
• Building Blocks to AI Timelines Feb 2025

functional forms

• Building Blocks to AI Timelines Feb 2025

growth models

• Building Blocks to AI Timelines Feb 2025

software optimization

• Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability Jul 2026
• On the Subtleties of Software Optimization Evals Feb 2026